The future of 5G, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and other technology development, will promote the community to accelerate into a new era of universal Internet, showing a universal connection, the perception of pan and intelligent pan in the three major characteristics. China Mobile Chairman Shang Bing said China Mobile is accelerating the development of 5G. In 2017, China Mobile will carry out 5G system field test in 5 cities. In 2018, it will start the scale test and realize pre-commercialization in 2019. It will realize commercial scale by 2020. At the same time will strengthen the joint research and innovation, and further strengthen the 5G and other key technology research and standards to lead the work, to create a number of landing, can promote the 5G cross-industry innovation applications.
China 5G development schedule
China has set up the most authoritative organization IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group (unlike the ITU IMT-2020 organization) is responsible for the 5G standard research and development, which organized the world's first 5G seminar, and put forward the " 5G of the flower "was accepted by the ITU, and have released a 5G network architecture, 5G wireless technology, 5G vision and other white papers, to determine the 2018 trial commercial, comprehensive commercial planning in 2020 and other time plan.
IMT-2020 (5G) to promote the group of three major operators, and ZTE, Huawei, Datang and other major equipment manufacturers to actively promote the 5G technology certification and standard development, the overall technical verification R & D is divided into three steps, the first step 5G key Technical verification has been completed, is currently the second step of the 5G technical program validation. Mt. Gregory, Director General of the Global Mobile Communications Industry, and Director of the Global System for Mobile Communications, said that by 2025, there will be 1.1 billion 5G connections worldwide, most of which will come from the Asia-Pacific region. Among them, the number of 5G users in China will reach 100 million.
5G three application scenarios
The ITU TELF defines five main applications in 2015: Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Large Connected Internet of Things (mMTC) and Low Latency High Reliability (uRLLC). According to Future Mobile Communication Forum released "5G White Paper", divided from a different angle information exchange objects, which eMBB scene refers to the basis of the existing mobile broadband services on the scene, to further enhance the performance of the user experience, mainly the pursuit of people and ultimate person communication experience, corresponds 3D / ultra high-definition video and other large mobile broadband services traffic; MMTC and things are uRLLC application scenario, but their different focus: between the matter and was mainly eMTC communication needs, for the smart city, environmental monitoring, intelligent agriculture, forest fire prevention to sensing and data acquisition for the target application scenarios; uRLLC applications with high demands on latency and reliability indicators, such as car-oriented networking, industrial control And other vertical applications of the special needs.
5G applications penetrate into all areas of life
In addition to 4G, in addition to continue to strengthen the human mobile broadband communications eMBB, but also increased the mass of machine communication mMTC, ultra-high reliability and low delay communication uRLLC two scenes: 5G era, in addition to human communication, also increased People and things, things and things of intelligent interconnection communication, opened a massive terminal to connect the market, while increasing the high-definition video, VR / AR, car networking, smart city, unmanned, unmanned aerial vehicles, large-scale Internet of things Various application scenarios market. Continue to strengthen the human mobile broadband communications, video calls are expected, holographic video calls, VR / AR interaction applications.
Mobile communication technology in the 5G weight and unified
Mobile communication technology can be said from the date of the invention of radio communication, the development of modern mobile communication technology began in the 1920s, generally experienced five stages of development. The fifth stage begins in the mid-1980s. This is the development and maturity of digital mobile communication systems. The stage can be divided into 2G, 2.5G, 3G, 4G, 5G and so on. Mobile communications every decade a new generation of technology, the introduction of innovative technology to promote the overall performance of the rapid increase, with 4G has entered the scale of commercial, for 2020 and the future of 5G has become the focus of global industry research and development.
The need to develop 5G
5G technology peak rate will increase several times, from the 4G 100Mb / s increased to dozens of Gb / s, which means that 1 second can download more than 10 islands nationwide; another coverage has become more broad, Such as underground shopping malls, remote areas and other weak areas can easily access the Internet; but also to meet the multi-device connection, one square kilometers can also access 1 million devices.
In recent years, China's mobile Internet market to achieve a leap-forward development, with the mobile network from 3G to 4G conversion, mobile traffic consumption showed explosive growth. According to Wind information statistics, in recent years, China Mobile Internet access traffic cumulative growth remained at 50% or more. Especially since 2016, with the popularity of 4G applications, mobile Internet access traffic more than 9 billion GB, nearly a year cumulative cumulative growth rate of more than 120%. The mobile Internet access traffic in May 2017 was almost flat in October. Continued outbreak of mobile traffic demand will be forced to change the communications industry.
Mobile Internet and Internet of Things is the future of mobile communications development of the two driving forces, in these two driving forces, 5G development is imperative, 5G will be used in production, life in all aspects. Ericsson Asia Pacific chief technology officer Magnus Ewerbring at this year's "World Internet Conference" pointed out that the world's leading companies are studying 5G. Because 5G from three aspects of the future of innovation and application: First, 5G can further strengthen the broadband bandwidth, shorten the response time to serve consumers; second, 5G through FWA to solve the last mile of the cable fiber problem; Third, 5G help things networking, to the new equipment into the network, bringing new applications.
5G market size over 10 trillion
According to the "5G Economic and Social Impact White Paper" issued by China Information and Communication Research Institute, 5G will comprehensively build the key infrastructure of economic and social transformation, from line to line, from consumption to production, from platform to ecology, and promote China's digital economy Development to a new level. The results of this report show that in 2030, 5G will lead to total output, economic value added and employment opportunities of 6.3 trillion yuan, 2.9 trillion yuan and 8 million respectively. In terms of indirect contribution, 5G Will drive the total output, economic added value, employment opportunities were 10.6 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan and 11.5 million.
According to the formal commercialization of 5G in 2020, it is expected that it will drive a direct output of about 484 billion yuan in 2025, 2030, respectively, will grow to 3.3 trillion, 6.3 trillion yuan, the average annual compound growth rate of 20 years %; In terms of indirect output, in 2020, 2025 and 2030, 5G will be driven by 1.2 trillion, 6.3 trillion and 10.6 trillion yuan, the average annual compound growth rate of 24%.
5G is in the formation of technical standards and industrialization of the critical period, the global countries in the national digital strategy are 5G as a priority areas of development, strengthen the industrial layout, shaping the new competitive advantage. China should seize this historic new opportunities, increase co-ordination efforts to speed up the process of 5G industrialization, ahead of the deployment of network infrastructure, and create an industrial ecological environment, deepen the integration of applications in various fields, a comprehensive development of 5G new situation for the global 5G Development to make new and greater contributions.
Looking back on the capital expenditure of the three major operators from 2G to 4G, it can be found that the average annual growth rate of China Unicom's 4G investment is about 36%, the average annual growth rate of the total investment is about 20%; China Mobile 4G investment average The growth rate of about 20%, the total investment over the years the average growth rate of about 9%; Amotech China Telecom in 2014 due to the scale of 4G investment is 357% in 2013, for the special value, after its removal of its 4G investment average The growth rate of about 5%, over the years the average investment growth rate of about 15%. In the peak investment year of 4G, the total investment of the three operators is 157% of the peak period of 3G. As the three operators in 2017 will reduce capital expenditure, with the 5G standard and technology to further landing, a new round of capital expenditure is bound to come back. Reference 4G compared to the 3G era of investment growth, we believe that 5G peak capital expenditure will be 45% of the period of 45%.
Analysis of 5G Industry Chain
5G will lead to innovation in network infrastructure, network edge equipment, and user terminal equipment, applications: higher and more frequency bands, new information coding, higher integration antennas and RF components, more flexible network architecture, and more Complex billing and business open system and other technological innovation, and these innovations will form an impact on the original industry chain and even replace. And in the field of chips, radio, new materials and airports will bring more innovation, will also create a series of explosive growth potential of high-quality companies. From the 5G industrial chain revenue logic point of view, 5G industrial chain by the upstream antenna, RF devices and other components, the middle reaches of the main equipment manufacturers and small base station service providers, downstream product applications and terminal application scenarios.
