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N-type battery market share has risen steadily in the next 3 to 5 years

Source: Time:2018-10-17 16:05:40 views:

        At present, most of the world's silicon solar cells adopt the traditional P-type standard process. P-type batteries still account for the majority of the market, and the market share of more than 85% is mainly due to the mature production technology of polysilicon products and the supply chain of peripheral manufacturers. Due to the complete settlement, it is predicted that the P-type products will remain in the world in the next 3 to 5 years. However, after the conversion efficiency reaches 22%, the P-type battery faces the diminishing effect of the marginal benefit rate of capital and technology input, and the conversion efficiency is difficult to increase effectively.

        Therefore, solar manufacturers began to look at the commercialization of the next-generation N-type solar cells, and N-type products are gradually growing steadily. In 2017, many manufacturers announced the introduction and commissioning of N-type battery components, including day care. , Lanshi, Jin Neng, Lin Yang, Ying Li and so on. According to data from the EnergyTrend Advanced Technology Report of Jibang New Energy Network, the new energy research center of Jibang Consulting, the production capacity of N-type batteries has been limited by the increase in production capacity and technology of P-type PERC in the past two years, and the growth has stagnated from 2018 to 2019. Even if the overall battery capacity is increased, the proportion of N-type batteries remains the same. In the next 3 to 5 years, the growth of N-type batteries is also slowly rising, gradually getting rid of the single-digit market share.

Solar cell market share forecast from 2017 to 2022



N-type battery with superior efficiency

       The main N-type silicon solar cells mainly include three types of HJT, IBC and N-PERT/N-PERL batteries. All three have the characteristics of N-type crystalline silicon cells, such as: low lifetime, low light fade, and weak light effect, but HJT and IBC have the highest potential for improving efficiency. Among them, HJT battery is the next generation solar cell technology that is close to mass production. Its advantages are not only high energy conversion efficiency, but also simple process, low attenuation of power generation efficiency at high temperature, thin silicon wafer can be used, and low mode can be used. Group package loss, double-sided power generation and other advantages have become the most promising battery technology for the next generation.

        The IBC battery, P-N junction and electrode are all placed on the back of the battery, eliminating the shading of the front grid of the battery and increasing the conversion efficiency, which can reach more than 23%. However, its process is complicated, and the investment in machine equipment is large, making the cost almost twice that of traditional batteries. Therefore, how to reduce the manufacturing cost of IBC is the current development focus. There are also laboratories that have developed batteries that combine both HJT+IBC structures and achieve the highest efficiency of 25.6% in the world, which is the highest efficiency that crystalline silicon solar cells have the opportunity to achieve.

        The third battery N-PERT/N-PERL has a simple structure, which retains and utilizes the existing conventional P-type battery device process to the greatest extent, and has the lowest mass production difficulty, but the conversion efficiency is not as high as the first two types of batteries.

N-type battery capacity ratio forecast


        EnergyTrend of Jibang New Energy Network pointed out that with the new structure of batteries such as IBC and HJT, the efficiency advantage of N-type single crystal batteries will become more and more obvious, and the market share will gradually increase. With the mass production of laser and ion implantation technologies, HJT solar cells are expected to reach nearly 10% market share in 2022, and IBC back contact type is 4.6%. The market share of traditional P-type batteries will decrease year by year.

Capacity forecast of the world's top ten N-type cells in 2018



        The first SunPower IBC battery has been the industry leader, although SunPower announced its investment in the P-type product line in early 2018; for IBC products, it is still committed to high-efficiency breakthroughs. Currently, 6-inch silicon wafer production has been introduced as the main product, and the battery is expected. The conversion efficiency is aimed at breaking through 26%. The second-ranked LGE maintains a diverse range of product lines. The overall N-type product line includes HJT (200MW); it also covers N-PERT (600MW) and IBC (600MW) capacity. The third place is the day-to-day PV. The AE power supply day-to-day main development of MWT products, whether applied to P-type or N-type; day care as a flexible choice of technology choices, the MWT products currently seen on the market are day-care places. Production; including Sumeda Huilun is also a day-to-day OEM product, and the future MW products planned for the third batch of runners in 2018; it is indeed a special leading trend. Both Panasonic and GS Solar, which are ranked fourth, are HJT battery manufacturers. Meteorite plans to produce high-efficiency double-sided heterojunction (HDT) components to improve the optimal output of N-type products.

        Constant pursuit of efficiency and cost reduction is the eternal theme of the photovoltaic industry. As the market demands higher efficiency and quality, the single crystal N-type battery will inevitably become the pursuit direction of the market due to its natural advantages. N-type single crystal battery will be a hot technology for high-efficiency battery industrialization in the next few years, and its market share will have a major breakthrough in the foreseeable future, and even become the mainstream.

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