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智能音箱市场刚刚起步，而且已然出现了泡沫
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时间：2017-07-31 15:01:29
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由人工智能驱动的智能音箱是当下美国最炙手可热的消费电子产品之一。亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc., AMZN)、Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)旗下的谷歌(Google)以及苹果公司(Apple Inc. ,AAPL)均推出了自己的智能音箱。如果这些生厂商认为美国市场已经很拥挤了，那他们应该来中国看看。
在苹果公司6月份发布声控音箱HomePod后的一天之内，智能音箱技术初创公司米糖科技有限公司(Sugr Electronics Corp.)的创始人宋少鹏就接到了三家电子产品制造商的电话，他们都希望宋少鹏能够帮助他们制造与HomePod类似的产品。
中国最大的网络音频分享网站喜马拉雅(Ximalaya)副总裁李海波说，在300多家获得喜马拉雅内容播放许可的音箱制造商中，已经有超过100家转向生产智能音箱。深圳有很多智能音箱
中国的大型科技公司也加入了竞争。本月电商巨头阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., BABA)和智能手机制造商小米(Xiaomi Corp.)分别推出了自己的智能音箱产品。而据一位高管称，社交媒体巨头腾讯控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings Ltd., 0700.HK)也在研发被称为智能盒子的产品。搜索引擎公司百度在线网络技术公司(Baidu.com Inc., BIDU)也公布了一款与亚马逊Alexa类似的语音系统，该系统可声控硬件设备。
从科技巨头到消费电子产品制造商，所有人都认为声控产品是通向未来的大门，未来由人工智能驱动的平台将能够操控家居、汽车和办公室。对一些人来说，这个人工智能的第一波革命似乎已经出现泡沫。
喜马拉雅的李海波表示，这绝对是一个泡沫。喜马拉雅在6月份推出了一款智能音箱。
中国网民数量几乎没有增长，官方数据显示去年增加2.9%，网民在线的时间过去两年也没有变化，每天3.8小时。互联网公司需要新的途径来吸引用户参与，而智能音箱看起来会是下一个大亮点。
对互联网巨头来说，声控被视为一项关键的技术，是键盘和触摸屏之后人和电脑之间新的交互接口。对雄心勃勃的初创企业来说，智能音箱是一个机会，就好比移动互联网时代到来时的应用程序。对电子产品制造商，就像以前的笔记本电脑、平板电脑、智能手机和无人机，智能音箱可能会让生产线继续运转，并持续创造销售额。
吸引这些公司加入竞争的另一个原因是，亚马逊、谷歌和苹果的智能音箱没有中文语音交互功能，而且做起来也很难。
过去的产品繁荣催生过如今已可预测的行业周期，随着迅速组装的相似产品以更低的价格涌向市场，品牌持有者的利润率将受到挤压。想想笔记本电脑和智能手机吧。
但智能音箱并不仅仅是硬件，它们需要搭载复杂的软件来识别并执行语音命令，向用户提供天气预报、交通状况、音乐、新闻、书籍等丰富的内容，以及从购买到支付的服务。智能音箱还需要与用户进行互动，随着时间的推移，还应掌握用户的偏好。
这意味着大量的研发工作。
宋少鹏说，这就好比2007年时你尝试研发一款智能手机，结果发现还需要研发Android操作系统以及安装在手机上的移动应用，这不是小型初创公司能做的。
喜马拉雅的所有者上海证大喜马拉雅网络科技有限公司(Shanghai Zendai Ximalaya Network Technology Co.)与应用开发商猎豹移动公司(Cheetah Mobile Inc., CMCM)旗下新成立的人工智能子公司开展合作。后者招聘了200多名工程师研发用于这款智能音箱的软件。
喜马拉雅副总裁李海波说，工作量很大。他说，他们使用了8万多个人的声音，来确保音箱明白人们在叫“小雅”时是在叫它。音箱外壳的布料换了后，音箱语音识别率从90%下降到10%。他们随后用了一个月的时间重新编写算法。
除技术外，据业内人士和投资者称，智能音箱生产商们可能在追逐一个尚未形成的市场。一些人表示，许多最近才晋升为中产阶层的中国人从未使用过音箱，更不用说数字助手了，因此，他们对这两种事物都需要适应。
电商巨头京东(JD.com, JD) 2015年推出一款智能音箱，去年销售了10万台，预计今年将销售数十万台。这款音箱的价格在人民币179-998元（合27-148美元），其销售收入对该公司来说微不足道，京东2016年总收入达人民币2,602亿元。AE电源
李海波说，喜马拉雅的优势在于，作为音频分享网站，他们的3.7亿注册用户和2,200万日均用户是天然的智能音箱客户。该公司在小雅音箱推出当日销售了5万台，价格为人民币699元，预计今年将以人民币999元的价格（包括订阅服务）销售100万台。
李海波说，至于很多涌入智能音箱市场的竞争者，他认为80%-90%的公司将在明年倒闭。
