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LED行业：供需两旺，整体业绩亮眼
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时间：2017-06-12 09:36:02
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近5年的LED行业营收及净利润趋势显示，2016年之前由于终端 LED应用、中游LED封装灯珠及上游LED芯片，全都处于价格下降而销量上升的趋势中，因此整体营收仍处于增长，仅是增速放缓。
一、行业整体业绩纷纷报喜 国内LED行业2016年年报及2017年1季报已发布完毕，整体业绩纷纷报喜。其中2017年1季报中，43家LED上市公司中40家的营收同比增长，35家LED企业1季报归母净利润同比增长，其中净利润大幅增长超过30%以上的上市公司达27家，占比超过60%。
近5年的LED行业营收及净利润趋势显示，2016年之前由于终端LED应用、中游LED封装灯珠及上游LED芯片，全都处于价格下降而销量上升的趋势中，因此整体营收仍处于增长，仅是增速放缓。数据显示自2015年营收增速率先企稳，而归母净利润增速继续下滑，直至2016年1季度开始，净利润增速开始回升。2016年LED上市公司整体营收总计达到1600亿元，增速超过25%，至2017年1季度行业整体营收增速及归母净利润增速双双超过30%，创下近5年的新高。
二、行业趋势向好扎实可靠 从LED行业2016年及2017年1季报来，我们观察到上市公司核心财务指标全都呈现明显改善趋势，核心指标包括ROE、营收规模及增速、归母净利润及增速、毛利率、净利润及经营性现金流等。LED行业趋势向好有扎实的财务数据作为验证，更加坚定我们看好LED行业趋势的信心。
从趋势上可以看到，2015年之前由于行业供给增速较快，导致行业整体处于供过于求的态势，行业整体净资产收益率不断下降，2012年到2016年下降比例超过40%。因此中小企业及落后产能不断退出，供给侧出清，产业集中度提升加强了行业壁垒。2016年开始LED 上游芯片行业补贴政策退坡，产能增速放缓，以及下游白炽灯禁售和小间距需求的爆发激发了LED下游需求，三者合力开始扭转 LED行业供需格局，2017年1季度行业平均ROE 同比大幅提升20%，至1.8%。已明显反映了LED行业的整体盈利能力提升。
三、全球LED制造向中国转移 全球LED制造向中国转移的大趋势已不容质疑，中国电子产业在多年的积累中已充分具备了的优秀流程管控及成本管理能力，同时工程师红利也正逐步释放，促使中国企业能够开发并拥有更多自主知识产权的国际先进技术，随着国际大厂技术进步遇到瓶颈而放缓，中国企业将充分利用国家政策、产业资本及工程师红利等多方面优势，实现后发制人，最终将战胜传统国际大厂，并成为引领行业发展的弄潮儿。
四、坚定看好行业龙头 持续看好LED行业龙头，行业评级“超配”。我们坚定看好LED芯片 Amotech
部分企业分析：
华灿光电 国内惯性传感器龙头 公司成功收购MEMSIC之后，将成为国内惯性传感器龙头，抢滩百亿级市场。
澳洋顺昌 盈利能力大幅提升 淮安光电与木林森以及地方政府战略合作，连续获得增资。2016年12月木林森作为戓略合作伙伴，不公司联合向淮安光电分别增资5亿元，2017年3月再次获得清河发展3.1亿元增资。目前公司、木林森和清河发展分别持有淮安光电70.93%、26.07%和3%的股权。
木林森 收购朗德万斯迎海外业务爆发 收购朗德万斯，海外业务迎爆发，打造全球LED封装+照明龙头。木林森此次收购欧司朗LED照明板块LEDVANCE是优势制造能力与百年品牌的完美结合，通过此次收购木林森将充分运用朗德万斯的海外优质营销渠道和品牌影响力，将木林森产品输出到全球。特别是目前公司手握核心产品LED灯丝灯，2017年公司LED灯丝灯销售额有望超过17亿，同比大增232%。随着公司未来海外业务快速增长，成为全球LED封装+照明龙头指日可待。
